A new study introduces a global probabilistic forecasting model that predicts when and where ionospheric disturbances—measured by the Rate of total electron content (TEC) Index (ROTI)—are likely to ...
“Some people are wired for all or nothing thinking…. Anything else can create fear and anxiety. It’s hard to overcome because ...
What are meteorologists supposed to do when the models they rely on disagree so sharply? And how should you interpret the forecast?
Building on Ben Bernanke’s widely used recession probability model, we invented a better model using exactly the same ...
Discover how Monte Carlo analysis helps investors assess risk and make informed decisions. Explore its role in generating ...
Researchers from the University of British Columbia argue that a widely used method to understand and predict flood risk has led scientists to miscalculate how forests can prevent major flooding. The ...
3d
Kalshi may be more useful than some traditional economic forecasting methods, Fed researchers find
The Fed paper found that Kalshi's markets provide data that's "valuable to both researchers and policymakers." ...
If you're not a Federal Reserve economist, you should probably still be wary of Kalshi.
New analysis explains why Prosper’s macro forecasts often signal economic shifts weeks or months before prediction ...
A peer-reviewed industry survey highlighting gaps in traditional demand forecasting and the role of AI in new product ...
Economists have noticed that betting markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are pretty good at predicting not just political ...
Abstract: The rapid development of flexible load technologies brings new challenges to short-term spatial load forecasting (SSLF) in distribution networks (DNs). Conventionally, as an open-loop method ...
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