If secondary sanctions lead to a 10 percent drop in Russia’s oil exports, that could increase the price of Brent crude oil by $6 from its current level of about $71 per barrel, while a 20 percent drop could cause prices to spike by $11, Brooks and Harris wrote.

Tariffs on Indian exports to the United States will surge to 50 percent by late August, as part of an effort by President Trump to pressure Russia into resolving its war in Ukraine.

In an executive order, Trump says "I find that the Government of India is currently directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil" and due to those purchases, imports of Indian goods into the United States "shall be subject to an additional ... rate of duty of 25%."