Gould, who previously estimated there was an “under 10% chance” Nancy Guthrie was still alive, has now gone further — offering a rough timeline for when she may have passed. His reasoning centers on a ...

The addition rule for probabilities determines the chance of either mutually exclusive or overlapping events happening, using ...

The Fermi Paradox is thus a complexified problem. On one level, it is a question about the prevalence of intelligent life in the universe. On another level, it is a question about who is controlling ...

A deep dive into how to think about going from auction values to bids. One of the main rules we consider when choosing ...

Selling cash-secured puts is simple in theory: you get paid to wait for a stock you want to own at a discount. But in a ...

George Pólya’s random walk theorem absolved him of being a lurker and revealed how the laws of chance interact with physical ...

“There are known knowns. There are known unknowns. But there are also unknown unknowns—things we do not yet realize we do not know.”—Donald Rumsfeld (2002) While modern machine learning (ML) ...

Are you interested in Actuarial Science? Are you interested in the career of Actuarial Science? Have you ever heard about an Actuary? Welcome to a profession that has consistently been a part of any ...

Operant conditioning, sometimes called instrumental conditioning or Skinnerian conditioning, is a method of learning that uses rewards and punishment to modify behavior. Through operant conditioning, ...

Probability theory is indispensable in computer science: It is at the core of artificial intelligence and machine learning, which require decision making under uncertainty. It is integral to CS theory ...

Applied category theorists are flocking to AI, because that’s where the money is. I avoid working on it, both because I have an instinctive dislike of ‘hot topics’, and because at present AI is mainly ...