'Large' asteroid's odds of hitting Earth went up. But not why you think.
It's certain that recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 will swing close to Earth in 2032. The chances of an impact remain low — but with relatively limited observations so far, the odds are in flux.
Chances of a big asteroid strike on Earth just doubled. Here’s why you shouldn’t be too worried.
A large asteroid dubbed 2024 YR4 now has a 2.2% chance of hitting the Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, according to NASA and the European Space Agency. That estimate, made Friday, works out to approximately a one-in-45 chance of direct impact, which also means a 44-in-45 chance of a miss.
Is a Big Asteroid Going to Hit Earth in 2032?
No, or at least not because of the 2024 YR asteroid. First off, there is currently only about a one-in-43 chance that this rock hits Earth, and those odds will change (and probably go down) as scientists gather more data on the recently spotted asteroid. A nearly 98 percent chance it won’t hit us is pretty good.
An Asteroid Has a 1-in-63 Chance of Hitting Earth in 2032—Here’s What That Means
A dive into probabilities, asteroid impact modeling, and what sort of damage an approximately 180-foot asteroid could cause on Earth.
Astronomers Are Keeping an Eye on This Asteroid’s Odds of Hitting Earth
Researchers say there’s a 1.3 percent chance that the space rock 2024 YR4 could strike our planet — but not until December 2032.
Scientists taking 'active measures' for asteroid with slight chance of hitting earth.
YR4 has just above a 1% chance of crashing into Earth in 2032, which is why astronomers and space agencies are paying attention to it.
The Odds of a Newly Discovered Asteroid Hitting Earth in 2032 Keep Rising
YR4 has a 2.2% chance of striking Earth in seven years, but recent updates keep pushing the odds in the wrong direction.
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